Since February, the oversupply has basically maintained the status quo, and the volatility of the spot market has followed the trend of futures. The pricing actions of upstream petrochemicals are the reference line for futures operations. Hong.com predicts that the market outlook is weak, and polyolefins will mainly fall slightly.
1. Today's futures PE performance is weaker than PP, but in the short term, PP has slightly more room to fall. In the market outlook, both varieties have a probability of falling under pressure, and the PP/PE variety price difference will be reduced.
2. The polyolefin petrochemical plant has fewer shutdown and maintenance devices, and the maintenance time is shorter, and the petrochemical plant normally increases the volume. Today, the petrochemical PP drawing part cuts its ex-factory price, and PE is relatively stable.
3. The decline in Cushing inventories in the United States and the suspension of crude oil supply in Libya have supported oil prices to a certain extent.
Comparison of spot basis for polyolefin futures
【Summary of PE Market】
Affected by the continued decline in the futures market, transactions in the spot market today are relatively thin. Due to the lack of favorable factors, traders are pessimistic about lowering their quotations, but this has not led to more transactions. The current trend of futures has a strong influence on the spot market. The recent wide-ranging volatility of futures has caused both the supply and demand sides to feel confused. Therefore, they both maintain a wait-and-see attitude and wait for the direction of the futures market.
[List of mainstream prices in the PE market]
[Dynamics of PE device conversion]
【Summary of PP Market】
Today, the PP spot market reacted steadily, mainly relying on the overall mediocre performance of the futures market. At present, the fundamentals of the spot market are bearish: on the one hand, the lower ex-factory prices of petrochemical plants have weakened the market price support; on the other hand, the upward momentum of futures is weak. Furthermore, the situation of oversupply of spot goods has not yet been eased.
[List of mainstream prices in the PP market]
[PP device parking dynamics]
Upstream raw materials
Crude oil: On Monday, international oil prices stabilized earlier in the day, and then followed in the footsteps of U.S. stocks to rise. Coupled with reports that crude oil inventories in the Cushing region of the United States have fallen, oil prices set their biggest one-day increase in two weeks. In addition, the supply disruption in Libya also provided some support. As of the close, the price of the main NYMEX US WTI crude oil futures contract rose 1.89% to US$62.61 per barrel; the price of the main ICE Brent crude oil futures contract rose 1.55% to US$65.56 per barrel.